Want to boost your investment returns? Japanese net-nets might be your ticket. Here's the quick rundown:
- Net-nets are stocks trading below their net current asset value (NCAV)
- Japan is a goldmine for these undervalued gems
- From 1985-2007, Japanese net-nets beat the market by 15% annually
Here's how to find them:
-
Screen for stocks with:
- Price to Book Ratio < 0.5
- Return on Equity > 10%
- Low or no debt
-
Dig into financials:
- Check cash, debt, and dividends
- Look for positive EBIT and net income
-
Assess company quality:
- Rising dividends
- Share buybacks
- Strong market position
-
Do your homework:
- Understand Japanese accounting
- Get local insights
- Use math models for faster screening
Remember: Spread your bets across multiple net-nets to manage risk.
Metric | Japanese Net-Nets | Japanese Market Average |
---|---|---|
P/E Ratio | 13 or less | Often higher |
Dividend Yield | ~3% | Lower |
Earnings Retention | High | Varies |
With smart research and discipline, Japanese net-nets can supercharge your portfolio. Ready to dive in?
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Key features of Japanese net-nets
Japanese net-nets are a goldmine for savvy investors. Here's why:
Common traits of Japanese net-nets
These companies often have:
- Tons of cash
- Few debts
- Solid profits
- Dirt-cheap stock prices
Plus, they're feeling the heat. The Japanese government wants them to boost their return on equity (ROE) to at least 5%, aiming for 8%.
Japanese vs. Western net-nets
Japanese net-nets are a different beast:
Feature | Japanese Net-nets | Western Net-nets |
---|---|---|
Availability | Plentiful (200+ out of 3,500+ stocks) | Rare |
Market inefficiency | Higher | Lower |
Language barrier | Often Japanese-only reports | English common |
Government influence | Push for higher ROE | Less direct |
Possible gains from Japanese net-nets
The numbers are jaw-dropping:
- 20% compound annual growth rate (1985-2007)
- Beat Japanese index by 200% in the same period
- 25-30% average annual returns
Real investors are cashing in. Nate Tobik's strategy?
"I started buying stuff that was a net-net that had over a 10% return on equity or was below 50% of book value with a 10% return on equity. And I just bought them."
It worked so well, he funded his house down payment.
Another investor struck gold with Twinbird, a Japanese electronics maker. Despite a earnings dip, it was still profitable and growing its NCAV by 10-15% yearly. Buying when the stock was 59% below its 2011 high, they cashed out with a 77% gain in about 4 months - a 308% annualized return.
These stories show the potential, but remember: do your homework and spread your bets to manage risks.
Getting ready for Japanese net-net investing
To find Japanese net-nets, you need the right knowledge and tools. Here's what you should know:
Basic Japanese market knowledge
Japan's stock market has been trending up for over a decade. The Nikkei 225 index has grown strongly, making it attractive to investors.
Key points:
- Highly regulated market
- Companies must provide quarterly and annual reports
- American investors often use ADRs for Japanese stocks
Japanese financial reporting basics
Understanding Japanese accounting is key for spotting net-nets:
Standard | Description |
---|---|
J-GAAP | Japanese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles |
Designated IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standards |
US-GAAP | United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles |
JMIS | Japan's Modified International Standards |
Over 30% of Tokyo Stock Exchange companies use or plan to use IFRS. The typical fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31. Companies must publish balance sheets, profit and loss statements, and changes in net assets.
Research tools and resources
You'll need the right tools to find Japanese net-nets:
1. Stock analysis software
These help you research and analyze stocks:
- My Stock Scanner: From $35/month
- Uncle Stock: From $15/month
- Stock Rover: From $7/month
2. ETFs for broader exposure
Consider these Japanese ETFs:
- iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
- WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ)
- Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP)
3. Advanced research platforms
For deeper analysis, try:
- AlphaSense: Free two-week trial
- YCharts: 7-day free trial
- Morningstar: One-week free trials for products
How to find Japanese net-nets: Step-by-step
Want to find Japanese net-nets? Here's how to do it:
1. Screen for potential net-nets
Start by looking for stocks that:
- Trade below their Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)
- Have positive EBIT and net income for the past 10 years
- Are debt-free
- Pay dividends
- Have stable or decreasing share counts
Use tools like My Stock Scanner, Uncle Stock, or Stock Rover to make this easier.
2. Dig into the financials
Look at the balance sheets and adjust NCAV calculations. Check these key areas:
Statement | What to Look For |
---|---|
Balance Sheet | Current assets, liabilities |
Income Statement | Revenue, net income trends |
Cash Flow Statement | Operating cash flow, FCF |
For example, Ryoyo Electric (8068) had an NCAV of ¥2183, no debt, and an EV/EBITDA of 1.73.
3. Assess company quality
Look at:
- Management's track record
- The company's competitive edge
- Market share and industry position
Choukeizai Sha (9476) is a good example. It's been profitable with positive cash flow for five years straight.
4. Do your homework
Don't skip this step. Check:
- Asset quality
- Hidden liabilities
- Industry-specific risks
Take Shinko Shoji (8141). It had 10 years of positive EBIT and net income, but its cash flow was all over the place. That's why you need to dig deeper.
"Net net stock investing is both simple and profitable, so long as you have the temperament required to buy into deeply depressed situations." - Evan Bleker, Author
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Tips for successful Japanese net-net investing
Want to make money with Japanese net-nets? Here's how to do it right:
Spread your bets
Don't go all-in on one stock. Nate Tobik, who founded CompleteBankData, made a list of potential net-nets and picked a few to invest in. It worked so well, he used the profits for his house down payment.
"I started to invest in them, and I thought, 'This is great. I'll buy a bunch of these Japanese net-nets.'" - Nate Tobik
How long should you hold?
Your holding time can make or break your returns:
Holding Period | Potential Return | What to know |
---|---|---|
1 year | 31% | Many experts like this |
2 years | 32.5% | Slightly better, but watch for missed chances |
3+ years | Less and less | Not great unless NCAV is shooting up |
Benjamin Graham says don't hold net-nets for more than three years. You might miss out on better deals.
Handle the risks
- Go for quality: Pick net-nets with over 10% return on equity and priced under 50% of book value.
- Don't overthink it: As Nate Tobik puts it, "You just need to be able to execute."
- Check your portfolio: Switch out stocks at least once a year. Sell when they hit full value.
- Learn from your mistakes: Be ready to cut your losses. One investor learned the hard way with Sears: "It took me a 66% loss and 8 YEARS to admit that!"
- Watch the currency: Tobik did well without hedging yen exposure, but keep an eye on currency risks.
Common mistakes and how to avoid them
Investing in Japanese net-nets? Watch out for these pitfalls:
Misreading Japanese accounting
Japanese financial statements can be a minefield. Just ask Mizuho Securities:
In 2005, they tried to sell 610,000 shares at 1 yen each instead of 1 share at 610,000 yen. Oops.
That's a HUGE mistake. And it shows how easy it is to mess up with Japanese financial data.
So, how do you avoid this?
- Learn Japanese accounting standards
- Double-check your math (then check it again)
- Use solid translation tools for financial docs
Missing cultural business differences
Japanese companies march to a different drum. They're all about long-term relationships, not quick profits.
Here's how it breaks down:
Western Companies | Japanese Companies |
---|---|
Obsess over quarterly results | Care about long-term stability |
All about shareholders | Consider all stakeholders |
Grow fast or die trying | Slow and steady wins the race |
To navigate this minefield:
- Get to know Japanese business culture
- Look at the big picture, not just last quarter's numbers
- Think about how culture might impact growth down the line
Spotting false bargains
Some stocks look cheap. But they're cheap for a reason.
James Grant, a big-shot investor, puts it like this:
"Companies that should've gone bankrupt often didn't. They were propped up by banks that were themselves on life support from the government."
In other words: some "bargains" are actually money pits in disguise.
How to avoid these traps?
- Don't just look at the price-to-book ratio
- Check out the company's debt and cash flow
- Do your homework on the industry and the company's place in it
Remember: if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
Advanced methods for finding Japanese net-nets
Finding Japanese net-nets isn't just about basic screening. Here are some advanced tactics to up your game:
Industry know-how
Knowing an industry inside out can help you spot hidden gems. Take Nate Tobik, founder of CompleteBankData. He used his banking expertise to find Japanese net-nets:
"I bought net-nets with over 10% ROE or below 50% of book value with 10% ROE. And I just bought them."
Result? These investments helped him buy a house. Not too shabby.
Local connections
Japan's business culture is unique. Local contacts can give you an edge. Aberdeen Standard Investments says:
"Being local is key. Japanese corporate culture has its quirks. Speaking Japanese and understanding the etiquette is vital in judging a business."
How to tap into local knowledge:
- Join Japanese market investor forums
- Hit up Japan-focused investment conferences
- Network with Japanese business pros
Math models
Statistical tools can help you find promising net-nets faster. Here's a simple model to start:
Metric | Target |
---|---|
Price to Book Ratio | < 0.5 |
Return on Equity | > 10% |
Debt to Equity Ratio | Low or zero |
This model helped Evan Bleker find winners like Twinbird, a Japanese electronics maker. Its stock jumped 77% in just 4 months after he bought it.
Conclusion
Finding Japanese net-nets can boost your investment returns. Here's how to do it:
1. Screen for potential net-nets
Look for:
- Price to Book Ratio < 0.5
- Return on Equity > 10%
- Low or zero Debt to Equity Ratio
2. Review financials
Focus on:
- Cash
- Debt
- Dividends
3. Check company quality
Seek:
- Rising dividends
- Buybacks
- Low debt
4. Do your homework
- Use industry know-how
- Talk to locals
- Crunch the numbers
Japanese net-nets have outperformed:
Metric | Net-Nets | Japanese Market |
---|---|---|
CAGR (1985-2007) | 20% | 5% |
Excess Return | 15% per year | - |
Some winners:
- Natoco (4627): 9.84% earnings yield, 2.22% dividend
- Excel (7591): 13.31% earnings yield, 3.92% dividend
- Kitakei (9872): 11.88% earnings yield, 2.83% dividend
Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your bets across multiple net-nets.
Ben Graham, the value investing guru, said:
"Our experience with this type of investment selection – on a diversified basis – was uniformly good ... It can be affirmed without hesitation that it constitutes a safe and profitable method for determining and taking advantage of undervalued situations."
With smart research and discipline, Japanese net-nets can pump up your portfolio.
FAQs
What are Japanese net-nets?
Japanese net-nets are stocks that pack a serious value punch. Here's what makes them special:
- P/E ratio of 13 or less
- About 3% dividend yield
- They keep enough earnings to maintain that P/E ratio, even without counting dividends
Tee Leng from ValueEdge puts it this way:
"A Japanese net-net is retaining enough earnings that it would trade at a P/E of 13 even if you didn't count the dividend as part of earnings. In that sense, you're buying a stock with a P/E of 13 and getting a 3% dividend yield for free."
That's like getting a bonus on top of an already good deal. Value investors, take note!
Here's how Japanese net-nets stack up against the broader market:
Metric | Japanese Net-Nets | Japanese Market Average |
---|---|---|
P/E Ratio | 13 or less | Often higher |
Dividend Yield | ~3% | Lower |
Earnings Retention | High | Varies |
When hunting for Japanese net-nets, keep an eye out for:
- P/B ratio under 0.5
- ROE above 10%
- Little to no debt